
On my way into work this morning, I saw a man walking down the street in a blue surgical mask. Now,
New Humanist is not based in Mexico City. We are based in central London. So far, one person from London has been diagnosed with swine flu.
According to the Guardian he, like the other four Britons to have caught it, has recently returned from Mexico and is responding well to treatment.
So, what could possibly compel someone, in a city where one person, yes
one person, has been diagnosed with an illness they caught abroad, to walk the streets (he was walking past Holborn station, by the way) in a blue surgical face mask? Presumably headlines such as:
"Hundreds of Brits 'will get swine flu in weeks' and pandemic could strike 40% of us"
Daily Mail, 29 April
"One step away from a pandemic: WHO chiefs say mass swine flu outbreak is 'imminent'."
Daily Mail. 30 April
"It just got worse: Bug pandemic now imminent"
The Sun, 30 April
"Concern over UK antibiotic shortage"
Daily Express, 30 April (this has to be my favourite.
Antibiotic shortage? For a flu
virus?
Or how about an opening sentence like this:
"KILLER swine flu is on a terrifying rampage across Britain, with more cases confirmed yesterday."
Daily Express, 30 April
Is it any surprise, in the light of coverage like this, that the odd person will panic and wear a face mask, even though it's completely unnecessary and
probably ineffective? And is it any surprise, as I saw on BBC London news the other night, that some people with private GPs will go and try to stock up on Tamiflu, just in case?
It leaves you crying out for a Ben Goldacre Bad Science column on the subject really, doesn't it? Interestingly, as
he writes in today's Guardian, he's been approached loads of times by the media this week to go on various shows to denounce swine flu as all "hype". But he hasn't done that, because it's not all hype. It's actually hard to say what impact swine flu will have, as it is with any disease. But the media have whipped the public into a frenzy so many times with regards to potential pandemics in recent years that we no longer know what to believe. As Goldacre writes, the fact that so many editors have turned to someone like him to denounce swine flue as hype is interesting, "because not only have the public lost all faith in the media; not only do so many people assume, now, that they are being misled; but more than that, the media themselves have lost all confidence in their own ability to give us the facts."
So swine flu may become a pandemic, or it may not. But in the meantime, it may be worth considering this fact. According to
government statistics, around 12,000 people die each year in England and Wales as a result of regular, seasonal influenza. But you don't see people in surgical masks on the streets of London because of that, do you?